Syria Ceasefire – The Loose Ends

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By Manycoloured Manley Nowaseb

Syria Ceasefire – The Loose Ends

The United States and Russia have successfully partner in fostering what is seen as a “Fragile” Syria Ceasefire truce which has proven to be successful for at least three days although some news agencies have reported some violations just within 24 hours after the cease fire deadline.

While many Syrians starts to foresee hope from the positive truce by two countries which themselves are vulnerable to conflict it is clear that there is a long way forward, to restore or establish a peaceful Syria, if it is possible after all!

Although the significant cease fire must mean progress of stabilization in the region and moving towards establishing a government with or without Assad, there is a cold tension in Saudi-Arabia, already, which moves to pursue Washington’s Plan B on Syria. The Plan B which if executed will present us with similar or worse results of what we have seen from the past Syria crisis or is a “thread” of a likely world war, a possibility so close, but which the world avoids to look to.

While peace and stability in Syria is a vital forecast for the world of peace, there is this great ‘dark cloud’ over shadowing Syria’s future, a cloud motivated by economic and political interest, echo of power and control as well as the will of competing for diplomatic achievements in Syria. Those are the effects of why this cease fire is seen as being ‘fragile’ as it remains a cloud that could rain anytime.

Looking from the perspective that the truce was agreed by and between the US and Russia it is telling the world or at least me that something is not right. Although we could agree with some political commentators that the US played the card to try and neutralize Russian military intervention in Syria that may just be the top of the ice burg from my perspective.

My take is: The US could have announce the cease fire through its media on its own terms, however in my view, they needed the attention of Moscow, to have them obliged to the cease fire terms was vital, let’s say because of their (Russia’s) involvement and influence in Syria. That means the US have achieved a major political move by having the Russians on board.

You see, I am disagreeing with many political commentators which believe that Russia got the upper hand to be included in this truce, because from my view point it is important for the US having Russia on board, a stance similar to having control of Russia’s military action which is in favour of the US and that agrees with my last article on How the US are Loosing Against Itself in which I reason that the US must consider the old saying; “Have your friend close and your enemies even closer.”

While the Syrians may hopes for peace and stability there is this wall which is seen to be in the way, the question of Assad. Neither Saudi-Arabia, US nor Turkey want Assad. Russia however plays a balance on the question but waves for peaceful elections, for the Syrians to decide on the conclusion of Syria’s government and that is I guess where the concern comes in.

It is widely speculated that one of the reasons why Assad still remains intact is because of the loyalty of Syrians those at home, including those in exile, contrary to the US notion in the matter, therefore if such speculation are accurate and elections are to be accorded in Syria – what will be the outcome if the Syrians re-elect Assad as president? That is the big question and concern and the answer is simple, it will revert back Syria to more war.

My point is; elections, peace and stability would have been achieved long ago in Syria, in fact it can take the world influencers the US, Russia, EU and China a couple of meetings to decide on fair elections and economic stability in Syria, but it cannot be achieved because of that ‘big dark cloud’ which I refer to in my above paragraphs.

Coming back on Syria and the cease fire, I must point out that this is a crucial time for each player involved in the conflict to sit back an understand or recalculate their interest in the matter, this includes Russia, the US as well as Assad and Syria at large. The achievement of cease fire must pose a sense of security to each group with direct or indirect influence in this conflict to understand that a war-free resolution can be achieved and that this cease fire is and should be a template for other war prone regions as well.

What I tend to look forward to however, from the cease fire and from the crisis as a whole is, while both Russia and the US may have different interest in Syria, how will their treaty on Syria conflict be useful to shape the future stability of the two powerful nations, is vital?

Have the Russian and US diplomats ever look beyond their so called "threats" against each other and consider their influence as a pact on world politics if not also economics. It's about time the two nations draw an agenda where both interest are equal and to build a common ground for future alliances, the one thing, the political arena has not imagine through its skepticism on Russia-US power battle.

The last aspect of the conflict I want to look on is in the proposed Plan B on Syria and what it holds in it. You see, one of the key reflects of Washington’s Plan B on Syria is to have a no fly zone in Syria, meaning the US will increase and aid ground troops (Special Forces) ammunition sufficient to take down “any” air operators; including Russia, Turkey and potential refugee transporters.  

What can cause the Plan B to come into effect is not clear, whether it could be any intervention which would likely to challenge the imposed cease fire in Syria, so the question is. Is the foundation of the Plan B, effective only if the presumed cease fire was not attained or is it beyond that if the US see that whatever they may bargain in the process is not attained is another big question?  

Lastly, it would be interesting to see the fade of ISIL, Al-Nustra and the so called moderates. It will be interesting to know their position in the reform of Syria, in fact will there be a round table to see the way forward, or will the US use their truce with Russia to call the shot?  

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